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#1 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-25 05:45:59

Gregori,

It's very possible that most intelligent beings in the universe never develop radio technology or any technology similar to ours.

When you think about it our line from tribes to radio wasn't a straight forward one and we could easily still be in medieval mode ourselves.

Another thought is...
What if our form of technology is a dead end.
We just believe that we are on some expanding technology and think we understand most of everything, but our technology is very primitive and bias and at some point we discover that.

We could spend many thousands of years only to discover that everything we knew was wrong simply because we took a wrong path to knowledge with our odd form of technology.

I'm pretty sure everything we know is pretty wrong anyway. smile
That statement seems to be more evident in the last 10 years as most of what we thought we knew rock solid seems to be wrong, or so far from what we thought we are perplexed to define how we could have been wrong.

#2 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-21 08:26:24

dicktice,

I personally believe the future of getting into space will have more to do with magnetics than anything else.

If we had a very high powered induction motor inside a craft and charged the atmosphere around the ship we could form a linear motor to get to space easily.

Something like a space elevator but without the need for the structure as the elevator.

I think something along those lines will be the breakthrough.
We sure are off topic now though.
Sorry to the group for that.
If you would like to start a new section away from this one, I'm more than happy to continue on at that place dicktice.

#3 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-20 07:26:58

dicktice,

Time will tell if we are intelligent or not .
A non bias judge and jury for sure smile

I believe we will take up residence on the moon, Mars i think will be a struggle to begin with and take much longer than expected for even a small settling.
Stepping from Mars to the next closest place at a near star will be quite a jump, will we ever accomplish that?

The moon might be 20 years before we really setup shop, Mars 50 years or more, the nearest stars i think we are looking at 100's if not 1000's of years before we are ready for that step.
From that point on though humanity would slowly colonize everything possible in our galaxy.

Then the judge and jury (time) would render a decision in our favour. smile

#4 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Candor Chasma » 2008-05-19 11:33:04

cIclops,

I'm pretty sure i see the EPCOT dome building inside the big (O) that is a monorail system.
Those Disney people will build anywhere. smile

To me i see a dune structure inside a crater, typical upheaval of material in the center of the crater with sand blowing across it.
If you look at the top of the O you see the sand blowing at the end of it.

#5 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-18 04:23:02

dicktice,

Sounds like we have pretty much the same opinion on finding another intelligence.
The jury is still out on if we are intelligent or not also. LOL

With some luck you won't have to wait 25 years for an answer, anytime i think is possible now for an answer.
A signal could be picked up at any time now we are starting to look seriously.

I agree with the lets get going with moving out to the stars.
50 years of silence after a few foot steps on the moon is a pretty poor record.

Finding an ET signal would be a day of reflection for everyone on this planet, we would have to give up some of the myths and beliefs we have and start working as one species on one small planet in the vastness of space.
Would be an interesting day for sure.

#6 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-15 16:47:40

dicktice,

Who is to say if we are alone or not, right now it looks like we are alone.
Right now technology isn't at a stage that it has much ability to say otherwise though also.
It could be a busy galaxy with lots of communications going on or quiet enough to hear just our own noise.

I think the next 25 years will start to give us a semi good idea if it's quiet or not.

I think that is how we will make contact, with other forms of ourselves.

With a second world of humans on Mars we will have to deal with them, they will be close enough to deal with us if we don't.
I'm sure Mars will set off on it's own path as it gets going and won't need to be told anything.
At other stars if technology never gets us beyond maybe 1/5 LS does it matter what they do?
I think they will do whatever they want, we should just keep our ears open and keep talking to them no matter what they do or become.

If we do eventually head out to the stars the ones going will change for sure on any planet they take up residence.
Even a world very similar to Earth will have a bunch of new natural selection processes that are sure to alter them.

#7 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-14 17:32:38

dicktice,

I agree with that 100 %.
Long before the sun gets to hot we will be gone or gone for good. smile

I think no matter what we do we don't have much longer as we are now.
Technology one way or another will change us.

We will either leave Earth and change ourselves at the new locations.
Destroy ourselves or be destroyed with change or lack of it.
Alter ourselves reworking our genes.
Alter ourselves with technology.

Lets hope we use up all the space we have in our island galaxy.
1 galaxy is more than big enough for us.
The other 249 billion 999 million 999 thousand 999 galaxies, we will get to much later. smile
I feel rather small after writing that.

#8 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-14 12:48:05

bobunf,

Sources for stars fusing helium are all over the Internet, what the stars act like when fusing larger amounts of helium is on most of those sites.


Only 2 reasons to go to Mars in my opinion.
1. because it's there.
2. because it's there and if the Earth did have a cataclysm we would be there also.

No need to convince anyone of going to Mars, the logic of a second home is apparent.
If our society can't see that it's time, then it probably doesn't belong on Mars and should wait for the big rock to fall, or wait for us to go back to throwing rocks at each other.

#9 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-14 10:08:07

bobunf,

We can do some stop gap measures for sure to prolong our stay on Earth.
Once the sun starts to burn hotter it will also start to fuse more helium.
In doing so the sun will not only become hotter but more erratic in its nature.
We can probably endure a sun at 20% hotter, but not 20% more solar flares with 20% more intensity.


dicktice,

I agree we are an unusual species with a lot of potential.
We also have a pretty dark side that could destroy that.

We are very curious but at the same time afraid of new things.
We are intelligent but have a difficult time in accepting new ideas.

We really do need to make a second home on Mars.
Something as simple as an odd virus could destroy everything we have, we could destroy ourselves or a rock from the sky could reset the life clock.
Will we just sit around waiting for one of those days or be a species that dares to venture forward and into safety for all of life on our little rock.

We might be alone in the universe or we might not, either way if we don't step up we might not get a second chance.
In my opinion right now is the time to take that step while global hostilities are at a minimum, technology is ready and many countries see the same future on Mars.

I think just once in a very long time the universe gets a place that has a potential species, not just once per star or even once in a while on many stars.
Maybe even just the once.

If we take the right steps we could be a species that endures until the end of time all across the universe.
If we don't take the right steps we might be just a footnote in the history of the universe, a failed experiment.

#10 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-12 14:05:52

dicktice,

Wouldn't that be sad if we are it and we destroy ourselves, or revert back to the stone age with our technology because we were to hostile to endure ourselves.

Right now is probably a good time to get on with at least setting up shop somewhere else before we do.

#11 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-12 13:54:39

bobunf,

It seems to be scientific consensus that Earth has used up around 90% of it's time in the life zone.

Earth indeed will have it's oceans boil away as the sun warms up.
Long before that happens we will need to migrate.
Doubt if we have 2 billion years before the boil happens, and less than 1 billion before it's time to leave as Earth becomes a hothouse.

Many articles about that on the net, and many more about the link between big moon, stable climate and the development of life to complex forms.

I just post the links i don't write them.
I tend to agree with the analysis of both arguments of moon and life development, but to each person they believe what they want from what they read.


cIclops,

You must be looking for C02 funding. smile
I have my doubts about C02 being a giant factor in greenhouse warming since reflective cooling from smoke/smog should actually be cooling the world even with increased C02 levels in the atmosphere.
When we stop producing lots of smog and smoke then i would worry about C02.

#12 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-12 07:55:56

cIclops,

Interesting article about axis change with no moon here.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m … i_13533907


A big moon seems like one of those must have items. smile

#13 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why is the Universe silent? » 2008-05-12 06:02:43

cIclops,

I believe the moon stops Earth from random tilts like happen on Mars.
I also believe the moon is the main reason life exists at all on Earth.
Couple of links about each.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4 … heory.html
http://www.astronomycafe.net/qadir/q106.html

#14 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-11 16:40:05

mork_from_seattle,

The real search for signals i think is just getting going.
We will probably get a pretty good idea over the next 25 years if some civilization is intentionally sending us something in the 100 ly range.

If they are just sending TV/Radio unintentionally like us, we will need to ramp up the equipment and search again. smile

#15 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-11 16:35:44

bobunf,

I agree that funding for science is the most likely way we would discover a signal ourselves.

Cost and gain is the problem with that idea though on the reliance of scientific knowledge vs spiraling cost for bigger projects.

You need a pretty good sized telescope to see even fuzzy pictures of an earthlike world within 50 ly.

Detecting gas makeup precises enough to detect a technical civilization on a planet orbiting a star even 25 LY away would be a much bigger telescope than the one to get fuzzy pictures.

Radio is an even bigger problem though, either the equipment is big enough to listen or it isn't, no fuzzy noises to give any evidence until you are at the right size or at least the right size to know you have to build much bigger.

Terraformer,

I think we might be alone in our galaxy as the only technical civilization but not alone in the universe.
And by no means alone in our galaxy for life.

Earth was bacteria, algae and fungus for nearly the first 3 billion years of the 4 billion years, so we should expect life on most of the earthlike worlds or gas giant earthlike moons even in the right spot to be that life or something similar.

We should also expect that not many earthlike worlds are safe abodes for life for 3 billion years before something really interesting happens.

The odds in my opinion are not very good for numbers of places for inteligent life in our galaxy, worse for time spans of life development on those places that are in the right spot, and worse again that everything happens somewhat similar as Earth to develop inteligent life, real bad if we need a big moon and only Earthlike places can host life, dismal if life is a freakish event.

The galactic distances are so far from each other that without some way to stop time or dimensional travel the galaxies could be a barrier for even the most technically advanced civilization in the universe.

We could have most of the galaxies in the universe with intelligent life that colonizes every star in that galaxy, but never take the leap to the next galaxy because it's to far to go with no stopping point.

#16 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-11 07:56:01

Terraformer,

I believe the Andromeda galaxy is just over 1 million light years away from us.

Difficult to imagine any technology that can make for a meaningful conversation at those sort of distances.

Even some form of communication a million times the speed of light would take 1 year each way, the method of sending a signal would need to be about a million times more directed than any method we have.

Bet the receiver would be a monster also.

That would be one long distance phone call,  the long distance bill would go on for a while, many pages. smile
The day before they mail that you, you might want to be off planet. LOL

#17 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-11 05:37:21

noosfractal,

Interesting article on Lucy TV. smile
Go big or go home i guess is the theme.

The catch 22 i see in building such big equipment to see our TV signals is that to build it in the first place you must know we are here, and to know we are here you must build the equipment first.

I guess if ET discover a different civilization very close to them.
It's possible they put up a decent sized dish for science originally, then detected a very weak signal from them while doing science.
As communications became more prevalent they both put up very large dishes to chat more easily.

Then one lucky day for one of them they hear a very very faint signal from us while doing some checks for others with the big dish equipment they both now have. 

This seems the only logical way to get to equipment that has a chance to hear our signals without building it first and just wishing someone exists with radio.

#18 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-10 17:13:00

bobunf,

I have no direct source as a link for the radio/TV dispersal patterns.
Probably not to difficult to do the math on a widening signal to figure the distance it would be receivable with the araceibo dish at any given distance.

I saw that 1 LY statement on a science show on TV about the radio bubble myth so i assume they had pretty good data on it.


mork_from_seattle,

Oh i agree finding ET will be a difficult task at best, if they are reclusive all the more difficult.

So many possible means of communication probably exist, we might not have even thought of some of the right ones yet.
Even if we are using the right one like you say we might be looking the wrong way.
Lots and lots of reasons we might see a noisy sky as a quiet one.

Same old problem with building a 50km array.
If we built a 1km one and had no success with it at all will we build a 10km, then a 25km  then a 50 km one?

We might get to the 10 km size one but if it has no success, then it would be very difficult to build the 25 km and justify it.

We might discover that optical telescopes in space run into that sort of problem if we don't detect an earthlike place pretty quick.
At some size with no luck we will have to justify the next size.

With any technology not returning results and equipment that is expansional expensive as it is sized up, sooner or later its just to expensive to justify.

I think if someone is trying to contact us they will attempt to make it pretty simple as we would if we were trying to contact them.
I doubt they will expect us to build 50km dishes to receive the signal they send.

If they really wanted to contact us i suspect the easiest way would be to send a TV signal directed to Earth, that would get our attention even if it was scrambled and unusual to us.

ET-HBO smile

#19 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-10 11:20:52

mork_from_seattle,

I think looking at another civilization within 100 LY's is probably a better way than listening for the radio signal.

I would think within 100 years we would be able to do just that.

Our radio/TV bubble only endure about 1LY then becomes background noise.
Even very advanced beings wouldn't detect us with our radio/TV signals, they would be to weak to detect from even the next closest star.

If they could see us first then send Radio signals that is a different story.
High powered directed radio signals can easily make it stellar distances as long as they are pointed at something.
I think they would have to be pretty similar to us technically or just a bit more advanced to contact us.

If they are extremely advanced and have been trying to contact us for a million years, they would probably either figure we are dummies or come and see why we didn't send a message back. 

I think we would have nowhere near that sort of patience after discovering another intelligent species, maybe 100- 200 years and if they didn't make contact back we would go and say hello in person.

#20 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-10 06:55:02

Terraformer,

When we exclude the places in our galaxy intelligent life won't be it leaves us very few places it might be.

If things have to be very much like our system in all respects then probably just a handful of places intelligent life could be in our galaxy.

If those places don't naturally start up life or intelligence isn't a normal route for life then we could have no others in our galaxy.

my guess would be 100 million stars as likely candidates in our galaxy.
1 in 100 is somewhat similar to our system.

1 million.

1 in 1000 has Earth/moon sort of system at the right place with all the needed attributes we have in our system.

1,000

1 in 1 develop life. (very optimistic)

1 in 100 have life long term with just the right planetary impacts that alter the development of life without destroying it.

10

1 in 10 develop intelligent life because everything was perfect.

1

Pretty easy to get to 1  smile

#21 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-10 05:10:42

cIclops,

I think we are aliens, but not in the conventional sense of ET.
Life seems to take a quantum leap on Earth from nothing to very complex, so us being the decedents of alien microbial life is quite possible.

It's difficult for even that sort of life to spread around a galaxy in hibernated format, but not impossible.
The decedents of that life might have gone through many stages on the original life world.
It just spread as more complex life as we see the first life on Earth.

#22 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-10 04:54:45

mork_from_seattle,

I agree on that, we really haven't listened to that many places yet for a signal.

We could have a few civilizations trying to contact us right now and just don't have the ears tuned into the right place.

I think the bigger trouble with radio signals though is that they have to be directed at us for us to receive them, or we have to be very lucky in picking something up not really directed at us.

If we receive something it probably means they know about us first before sending.
Them knowing about us before they send isn't a problem, but how would they know we are here before they send, and how would they know we could possibly listen?


noosfractal,

That is interesting that it is possible after colonizing a galaxy to spread to the next one.
The distances are really long to do it and i think you are right it's a time thing for that spread to happen galaxy to galaxy.

I guess with conventional travel even at pretty fast speeds it's a difficult prospect to colonize another galaxy but not impossible.

With unconventional travel it might be a different prospect altogether.
Maybe black hole travel, wormhole, dimensional, time etc.

If unconventional travel is possible we have to wonder about that same question we did before, why are they not here.
Then again we are just 1 galaxy in 250 billion so lots to explore before they happen upon ours. smile
With that sort of technology when they find us would they even be interested in us?

#23 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-09 17:52:14

noosfractal,

Expanding on your thought about colonizing this galaxy.
What if we are alone in our galaxy but lots of the close galaxies have been colonized by species in those galaxies.

Can we use that same sort of formula for colonizing to other galaxies?
The distances are truly immense to get to the closest other galaxy for any species from any galaxy.

That might be the ultimate barrier, even with very fast travel and very long lived species the distance will still be daunting.

#24 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-09 09:58:32

bobunf,

80% of the stars in our galaxy are in the central bulge of stars.
To much radiation, to many super novas, to much moving material in that region for life to have a decent chance of being around for at least 2-4 billion years.

Leaving us just 20% of the stars in total,  of that total at least 50% are to big, to small, been around to short a time, or are unstable stars, multiple stars, etc.

Even if we exclude the need for a big moon and just need an earthlike place in the right location with a good mix of gas/land/water and other necessities like a strong magnetic field, we wont have many of them.
1 in a million?
If we indeed do need a big moon, 1 in a billion?
if life doesn't just start naturally on most places it can, 1 in a trillion?
if things need to be almost clones of earth/moon and our solar system and life is an odd event, 1 in 100 trillion?

Life might indeed be a very odd event, on earth it was quite complex as the first form of life.
We find no evidence of a before that step on Earth.
Either life started on Earth as a very unusual event or life somehow made its way here as pretty complex forms in hibernated format.

A close to correct world like Venus or Mars means nothing.
Either we have a world in the perfect place or we don't, not much room for error in Earths orbit to remain as it is.
As little as 1% difference and we freeze or bake.

Moons around gas giants i also think are good places.
I'm not 100% sure many of them will be good places either, some will though.
Radiation, tidal flexing, and many more impacts could be down sides to life on a gas giant worlds moon.
Life on some of the moons going around gas giants, i think so, but would they be good places for long term life development, not so sure. 

I'm no pessimist about other intelligent life in the universe, i just think we are way to optimistic about how many places can host it.
Life i think will be spread around in lots of places, but having the right conditions for life then intelligent life are going to be long odds.

If we are in a galaxy with 10 other technical civilizations then that is great, we will eventually have someone to talk with.

If we are alone in our galaxy then we have a galaxy to spread life to.

If we are alone in the universe we are truly special and should cherish that fact.

Once we get samples back from Mars i think some of the freakishness of life questions will be answered.
Then we can probably take a realistic guess about life in our Galaxy.

#25 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Why No Contact Yet ? » 2008-05-09 05:19:26

bobunf,

I think the real question comes down to how odd or normal is life in the galaxy.

If life requires an earthlike world with a big moon and a host of other conditions pretty similar to our solar system, then we could easily be alone in this galaxy.

If life is pretty typical around the galaxy and not so reliant on our type of setup then lots of systems will have life.
Intelligent life forming on any of those places i think will be an oddity just like it was here even with perfect conditions.

When we imagine that 90% of the stars in our galaxy cant support life.
90% of the remaining stars wont have earthlike places.
90% of the remaining total that have earthlike worlds wont be in the right place for an earthlike world.
90% of that total wont have big moons.
90% of that total wont have a perfect mix of gasses/land/water.
90% of them never develop intelligent life.

We probably have another 50 of these to do before we get to a real total of possible places and chances for intelligent life to form on them.

When we start we need a random number on those worlds to see how normal or odd it is for life to develop at all.
If life is very normal then 1 out of 1, if it is an odd event them maybe 1 in 100 or worse.

If life is a very odd event we might not only be alone in this galaxy but alone in the universe.

I think if the galaxy has decent numbers of intelligent species with technical abilities it will still be difficult to communicate with them.
For them to talk with us they will need to be more technically advanced that us and be very persistent in trying to communicate with us.

Long distances might not be a problem if you are a million years more technically advanced than us, because you simply send every type of imaginable signal towards us and wait for a reply.
If radio does indeed become super seeded you send the technical information on radio how to communicate much faster.
Persistence will be needed for sure as the distance increases.

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